LPL Monthly Letter

Some of you may be surprised by the stock market’s recent strength, particularly with oil prices over $100 a barrel. To us, the amount of artificial intelligence (AI) investment is even more surprising. But that’s not all there is to this story.

Economy: Modest Growth but Well Supported. Economic growth is moderating, with first quarter GDP coming in at 2% as consumer spending cooled. LPL Research has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.0%, down from 2.7% pre-Iran conflict. Business investment, government spending, and AI are supporting economic activity, helping to offset softer consumption growth. Strong corporate profits and a resilient labor market give the Federal Reserve room for patience, leaving 2026 rate cuts in doubt. Inflation will continue to take its cues from the oil markets, underscoring the importance of monitoring developments in the Middle East closely.

Stocks: AI Gives Bull Market Legs, but Bouts of Volatility Likely. We believe the bull market has further to run on continued optimism surrounding AI. Stocks enjoyed a strong April with double-digit gains for most broad indexes, but strong earnings have kept the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio reasonable near 21. If AI spending comes through and is viewed as productive, this bull market should still have legs. That said, expect volatility from Middle East headlines and oil prices to continue in the near term.

Earnings: A Key Anchor. A key bright spot for stocks, first quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is tracking to over 20%, supported by technology investment, productivity gains from AI, and fiscal stimulus. Capital investment plans for 2026 by AI hyperscalers have increased by more than $200 billion this year to over $725 billion — offering significant earnings for companies building out AI capabilities, particularly in semiconductors. While geopolitical risks and energy price swings can distract markets in the short term, earnings strength remains critical to sustaining stock prices over time.

Bonds: Income Generator. In fixed income, starting yields remain attractive relative to history. As such, we continue to emphasize income generation over price appreciation. As policy rates eventually move lower (unlikely until after oil prices start coming down), returns on cash may fade, increasing the appeal of high‑quality bonds with intermediate maturities as portfolio stabilizers and income generators.

Bottom line, we continue to see a constructive investment environment, albeit one that will likely require patience and discipline over the balance of 2026. Bouts of volatility remain likely, but fundamentals, particularly earnings, continue to underpin our confidence long term. Investors are encouraged to maintain long‑term allocations, stay diversified, and use periodic pullbacks as opportunities.

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of May 5, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

As the Iran conflict enters its second month, geopolitical stress continues to test investors. Historical stock market performance during geopolitical conflicts helps remind us that stocks are far more resilient than the moment may suggest. As we assess today’s environment and the uncertainties surrounding ongoing military operations in Iran, we focus on two past conflicts we believe are instructive, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

The two periods offer contrasts. In 1990, at the start of the first Gulf War, the U.S. economy was slipping into recession. Corporate profits were flattening, inflation remained elevated, and consumer confidence was fragile. With little fundamental support in place, markets initially struggled. Yet even then, equities began recovering well before the conflict formally ended, anticipating eventual stabilization.

By contrast, in 2003, when the Iraq War began, the economy had already healed from the dotcom bust and the 2001–2002 corporate accounting scandals. Corporate earnings were rebounding, monetary policy was supportive, and valuations were reasonable. With stronger fundamentals in place, markets responded positively after hostilities started and began a five-year bull market that didn’t peak until October 2007.

Today, we see elements of both periods — but importantly, we do not see evidence that the long‑term economic or earnings outlook has been meaningfully impaired. First and foremost, a demilitarized Iranian regime would ultimately contribute to a safer world and more stable markets, mitigating a key geopolitical risk that has persisted for nearly five decades. From a market perspective, nothing about the current conflict undermines our confidence in the long‑term attractiveness of equities. For stocks, the more positive 2003 path seems more likely than 1990.

Beyond the human element, we can all acknowledge that this environment is uncomfortable. The damage the Iranian regime has inflicted on energy and other infrastructure in the region is unsettling. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no easy off ramp. Yet history shows that markets often recover well before geopolitical tensions fully resolved and frequently with surprising force once clarity begins to emerge. As stocks hinted at with big gains on the last day of March, that outcome remains possible in our view.

While no one can predict how long this period of volatility will last, the underlying economic foundation and corporate America’s earnings power remain strong. Attractive opportunities are likely to emerge from this downdraft once U.S. military objectives are achieved and tankers can move freely through the strait.

We believe it important to keep portfolio risk at or near long-term targets and remain well diversified. For long-term focused investors, we see opportunities to take advantage of weakness.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of March 31, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

Joint airstrikes against Iran targeting high-value military installations to hinder Iran’s nuclear development efforts and degrade its military capabilities while removing the Iranian regime from power are ongoing. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marked a significant escalation in the conflict. Iran retaliated by launching a broad series of missile attacks directed at Israel and multiple Gulf states, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The repercussions have been felt across the region as global energy flows were disrupted and oil and gas prices surged. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves — is at a standstill. A sustained spike in energy prices would likely require evidence of a more prolonged disruption, something not evident at this time and not our base case.

Despite the severity of these events and the uncertain path forward, a historical stock market perspective is helpful. History shows that markets often recover quickly once conditions stabilize, typically within days or a few weeks, as long as the U.S. economy doesn’t slide into recession. Geopolitical shocks can elevate volatility, as this one has, but they do not typically derail longer‑term market trends unless the economic impact becomes both deep and persistent.

Our broader stock market outlook for 2026 remains constructive. A growing economy, bolstered by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and artificial intelligence (AI) investment, provides a supportive backdrop for stocks despite concerns about AI disruption. Earnings growth, particularly in technology, remains quite strong, powering S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 14% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve remains likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, when inflation pressures are expected to ease. Despite the initial sell-off in Treasuries after the Iran strikes, interest rates remain at comfortable levels for the economy. In February, mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, helping to support the important housing market. These dynamics suggest that any weakness related to geopolitical volatility may present a buying opportunity.

Our message for investors is to remain patient and be diversified. Staying the course during volatile and uncertain geopolitical environments can be difficult, but the stock market’s track record suggests it’s the right approach. Don’t let short‑term uncertainty obscure long‑term opportunities.

Last and certainly not least, we wish our service men and women in harm’s way a safe return home. Let’s all pray the world will be a safer place on the other side of this conflict.

As always, please reach out to me with questions. Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of March 3, 2026.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

Other than the historic volatility in gold and silver prices, the biggest news for markets in January may have been the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. We anticipate a Warsh-led Fed will be able to steer the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toward two rate cuts later this year, with help from easing inflation pressure. Remember, the Chair just gets one vote on the 12-member FOMC, so the health of the labor market and the path of inflation will be critical.

Warsh’s track record of flexibility on interest rate policy, his credibility with Fed officials, and prior advocacy for central bank independence should help ease concerns about the President’s influence. However, his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet, now over $6.6 trillion, and his emphasis on fiscal responsibility could complicate the Treasury’s efforts to refinance government debt at lower rates. This dynamic will be important to watch because the U.S. government’s fiscal situation is not on a sustainable path.

One of the reasons Warsh is likely to push for lower rates, despite still-elevated inflation, is productivity gains from AI can help the economy grow faster with less inflation. Recent data shows U.S. nonfarm business productivity rose 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Technology and more efficient processes enable firms to produce more with fewer hours worked, a key reason economic growth will likely help push stocks higher.

AI investment is also helping drive a strong fourth quarter earnings season. S&P 500 companies are on track to deliver a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. While this is driven mostly by the tech sector’s 30% earnings increase, keep in mind industrials are tracking toward 25% earnings growth. Several leading companies have cited tangible benefits of AI during earnings season, including Bank of America, Meta, and Costco. Strong earnings can help solidify the floor under stock prices, while cooling inflation and stable interest rates can help raise the ceiling by supporting higher valuations.

Looking ahead, the backdrop for stocks remains favorable. Massive AI investment is driving gains in productivity and earnings. Consumers will get tax refunds associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act starting this month. Positive stock market performance in January often bodes well for annual returns, though past performance does not guarantee future results. And increased participation in this bull market is encouraging — the average stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past three months*.

AI scrutiny, deficit spending, and geopolitics remain key risks. New Fed Chairs are often tested by markets, and midterm election years tend to be more volatile. Don’t let any volatility that may come along shake your confidence. It will not shake mine. I believe volatility creates opportunity. Stay invested and diversified.

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

* The average stock is the equal weight version of the S&P 500. Return for the equal weighted S&P 500 over the past three months (since 11/03/25) is 6.7% vs. 2.1% for the regular S&P 500 over that period.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of February 4, 2026.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

Stocks had another strong year in 2025 as most market benchmarks enjoyed their third straight year of doubledigit returns. Last year’s performance was particularly rewarding given how much stocks overcame — notably tariffs. Tariffs weren’t the only obstacle, as market concentration, high valuations, deficit spending, and inflation occupied spots on investors’ lists of worries. Reflecting on 2025, here are some noteworthy takeaways:

• In our view, bears are usually wrong. The stock market had plenty of skeptics when 2025 began, just like 2023 and 2024. While stocks have down years, on average, they go up about three times as often as they fall (based on S&P 500 Index returns since 1980), though past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Stocks usually follow earnings. S&P 500 companies in aggregate grew earnings at a double-digit pace in 2025 and have the potential to do so again in 2026, bolstering stock performance. It’s no coincidence the technology sector produced some of the strongest earnings growth and best returns last year.
• Policy matters; politics, less so. The volatility that almost ended the bull market last spring was driven mostly by tariffs, which directly impact corporate profitability. Once tariffs were reduced or removed, the major averages quickly reclaimed prior highs. If politics don’t hurt corporate profits, e.g., in a government shutdown, we believe they are unlikely to hurt the stock market.
• Big market drawdowns and attractive annual returns can coexist. The S&P 500 dropped to 19% below its record high at its 2025 low on April 8 but ended more than 16% higher for the year. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% annual gain (excluding dividends) and a 14% maximum intra-year drawdown. This perspective and a long-term focus can help ensure volatility doesn’t knock you off course as you pursue long-term goals.
• Lower interest rates are good for both stocks and bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained more than 7% in 2025 on the back of lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its target rate and inflation moderated. Those lower rates also helped stocks maintain lofty valuations at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) near 22 based on the consensus S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for the next 12 months. Valuations are not good predictors of performance year to year.

Looking ahead to 2026, stocks face some of the same challenges they did in 2025. While tariffs may play a smaller role, policy uncertainty around midterm elections could contribute to more volatility in the year ahead. With fiscal stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and huge artificial intelligence investments coming, another year of gains appears likely.

All of us at BD Wealth wish you a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2026.

Important Information
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There
is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves
risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged
statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment
and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All data is provided as of January 7, 2026.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their
products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the
broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the
firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net
income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government
and corporate bonds.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification
does not protect against market risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any
OtherGovernment Agency
Not Bank/Credit
Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union
Deposits orObligations
May Lose
Value 

Stock investors were rewarded for staying the course in November as broad stock market averages recovered from a mid-month dip to end near record highs. The comeback extended the S&P 500 Index’s streak of monthly gains to seven – something to be thankful for alongside the arrival of the holiday season. Increasing confidence in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts was a key driver, but renewed confidence in the economic and corporate profit outlook and artificial intelligence (AI) investment certainly played a role, in our view.

As December begins, markets will continue to take directional cues from the job market, which will be key to preserving consumer spending during the important holiday shopping season. We expect slower but still positive job growth as government data delayed by the recent shutdown fills in. The approximately $130 billion in annualized incremental consumer tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will start flowing in February 2026, not far off. The White House has also pivoted toward tackling affordability challenges. The K-shaped economy — where upper-income folks enjoy rising asset values while those living paycheck-to-paycheck struggle — remains a challenge. Policies to help lift the bottom half of the “K”, perhaps through the housing market, may help shore up the overall consumer spending picture.

As U.S. consumers hang in there, corporate America is thriving. The just-completed third quarter earnings season underscored companies’ ability to clear a higher bar. More than 82% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus earnings targets, the highest rate since at least 2009. Earnings grew 13%, extending the streak of double-digit increases to four quarters. Profit margins unexpectedly expanded despite increased tariff costs, supported by disciplined cost management and productivity gains. And management teams generally signaled confidence in demand, causing analysts to lift earnings estimates for 2026. Corporate America’s resilience reinforces the case for maintaining equity exposure in line with long-term targets.

As we prepare to turn the page to 2026, several factors warrant close attention. The Fed’s policy trajectory remains central, with inflation trends and the labor market guiding the central bank. While a rate cut is now fully anticipated in December, the number of cuts beyond that will hinge on incoming data. Other factors to consider as investor attention shifts to the year ahead include increasing scrutiny around AI investment, midterm elections, the U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical threats.

Against this backdrop, investors may benefit from prioritizing diversification and risk mitigation in 2026. Bouts of volatility are likely and may present attractive entry points for disciplined investors. Opportunities exist in sectors aligned with growth drivers such as AI, fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and changes in regulatory policy, but investors will want to maintain flexibility. We believe corrections are a price we must pay to pursue compelling returns over the long term.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of December 3, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

The last week of October delivered a flurry of impactful headlines across earnings, monetary policy, and geopolitics — each shaping the investment landscape as we head into year-end. Here are some key takeaways:

• Corporate America continues to impress. We’re now more than 70% through third quarter earnings season and an impressive 83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings expectations, putting index companies collectively on track to deliver a fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The surge in capital expenditures from Big Tech has been a standout theme. The top seven technology companies are now expected to invest more than $500 billion next year to build out AI infrastructure, underscoring the intensity of the AI arms race. While investors have generally welcomed this investment, the cool reception to Meta’s (META) results highlights growing scrutiny.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced uncertainty about the future path of rates. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was “far from a foregone conclusion.” As anticipated, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, the Committee remains divided, and the tone was less dovish than markets hoped, sending Treasury yields higher. Labor market commentary was also revealing, painting a picture of a “no hire, no fire” dynamic as companies mostly held headcounts steady amid economic uncertainty. From our perspective, labor market risks make the case for continued rate cuts into 2026 despite lingering upside risks to inflation.
• U.S.-China trade truce reduced the risk of escalation. President Trump and President Xi reached a one-year trade truce at the APEC summit in South Korea last week. Key elements include reduced U.S. tariffs, resumed China soybean purchases, and a pause on China’s rare-earth export controls. The effective overall tariff burden is around 12%, well below most policy strategists’ expectations in the mid-teens. Easing trade tensions and reduced tariffs have provided a tailwind for corporate earnings.

These significant developments were generally well received by financial markets — enough to clinch the sixth straight positive month for the S&P 500 Index and the seventh straight for the Nasdaq Composite. While past performance does not guarantee future results, November through April has historically been the best six-month period of the year for stocks, although some gains may have been pulled forward and concentrated market leadership introduces some fragility to a bull market that hasn’t experienced a 5% pullback in nearly six months.

In closing, surprising earnings upside, easing trade tensions, and a favorable seasonal setup are balanced against supportive but less predictable monetary policy. We favor a selective tactical approach into year-end.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of November 5, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

The October 1 deadline has passed, and the U.S. government has shut down. While political gridlock is never ideal, history suggests that shutdowns tend to be short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market. They are largely about political posturing and therefore don’t take long to get resolved. Simply put, delaying Social Security checks is not a winning political strategy, so it almost certainly won’t happen (we can’t make guarantees, but this is close).

Republicans do need votes from Democrats, and we know there hasn’t been much nice playing in the sandbox in Washington, D.C. lately, introducing the possibility of an extended shutdown. Democrats are seeking healthcare concessions, including reversing Medicaid cuts and extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. Meanwhile, the Republicans are threatening more public-sector layoffs in areas not aligned with the President’s priorities, as each side stakes out its position.

Investors have smartly looked past budget disruptions throughout history, rightly focusing on traditional fundamental drivers of the economy and stock market such as corporate earnings, consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and interest rates. That said, sectors heavily reliant on government contracts — such as defense and life sciences — may experience some short-term volatility. An extended shutdown, which could delay key economic data releases, including the October 3 jobs report, could detract slightly from economic growth but is unlikely to be material, in our view.

Since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 shutdowns, averaging just eight days in duration. The longest, in 2018–2019, lasted 34 days. Importantly, the S&P 500 has historically posted average gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following budget resolutions, underscoring the market’s resilience, though past performance does not guarantee future results. Even if investors ignore the government shutdown, a pause may be in order given how far stocks have come since April — even as more tariffs are absorbed.

While we see rising odds of a 5–10% pullback, risk to this bull market appears low thanks to a resilient economy, strong earnings, the resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and long-term catalysts like AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Against that backdrop, a pullback could offer an attractive buying opportunity.

In short, while near-term volatility is possible, or perhaps even likely, the broader outlook remains constructive. We encourage investors to emphasize stock market fundamentals over political theater and consider pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of October 1, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

As summer winds down, the financial world remains focused primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed). At last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed seems ready to cut interest rates later this month amid a slowing labor market and inflation risks poised to recede. Markets responded to the Fed’s message with a small cap-led rally and lower Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield stands a good chance of staying in its current range, despite intensifying political pressure on the central bank. Containing long-term interest rates is critical as interest costs for the federal government continue to rise.

The latest inflation data for July matched expectations, but the slight increase in the year-over-year core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July reminded us that there is still work to be done on inflation. Tariffs won’t make that work any easier as they flow through with a lag, their legality notwithstanding. 

At the same time, the Fed and markets agree that recession risks remain low and that corporate America is in excellent health. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.3% annualized, a solid jumping off point for the second half. Fiscal policy stimulus coming in 2026 will likely offset tariff hits to the economy, creating a favorable backdrop. As markets are forward-looking, this setup can help stocks hold recent gains and mitigate potential market declines in case volatility picks up.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings continue to impress. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants delivered nearly 30% earnings growth in the second quarter and increased capital investment plans. Capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could approach $500 billion next year, and potentially hit $3 to $4 trillion by 2030, according to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. This investment bolsters the earnings growth outlook for the tech sector and, more broadly, could bring sizable productivity gains to corporate America. Growth stocks should continue to do well.

Risks may be manageable, but we feel obligated to point out that September has historically been the worst month for the stock market. While this month could live up to its reputation as a soft patch for stocks (the average S&P 500 September price change is -0.7% since 1950), history tells us that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness is less of a factor. There is also some risk that markets don’t like the forthcoming effects of tariffs, especially with stock valuations elevated.

As we navigate these crosscurrents, we encourage investors to remain diversified and consider adding equities on potential dips. Monetary and trade policy shifts, political dynamics, and corporate earnings strength present both opportunities and risks. We remain committed to guiding you through these complexities with as much clarity and confidence as possible.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of September 3, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

The last few days of July and the beginning of August have brought a flurry of key economic data, central bank activity, company earnings results, and tariff news. Here are some takeaways from the week of July 28:

Slowing U.S. economy. Second-quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3% annualized rate, though much of the growth stemmed from a sharp drop in imports after companies rushed orders ahead of tariffs. July’s jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, signaling a labor market losing some steam. While this could support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) case for easing, it also introduces concerns about consumer spending. Though we see no signs of an imminent recession, we believe the U.S. economy is unlikely to grow faster than 2% in the second half.

Resilient corporate earnings. Earnings season has been better than anticipated, showing that corporate America has more earnings power than previously thought. Analysts called for S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 4–5% year over year when earnings season began. We expected some upside, perhaps to around 8%, but companies are collectively on track to grow earnings by over 10% (source: FactSet). Big tech companies have been the key driver, accounting for half of earnings growth amid big investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

Stage set for a September rate cut. The Fed held rates steady on July 30, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments were less definitive than markets had hoped. The weak jobs report on August 1, however, revived expectations for a rate cut in September, which may help mitigate the magnitude of any stock market pullbacks. Two cuts of 0.25% each are likely this year, if not three, which should help support the bond market.

Don’t dismiss trade risks yet. The August 1 negotiation deadline passed, with several countries slated for tariffs well above the apparent floor at 15%. Only about half of the presumed tariffs have been implemented, meaning more upward pressure on prices and company profit margins lies ahead — after more tariffs take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing with China and several other key trading partners.

What this means for you. The market is navigating a complex landscape, with several economic and policy crosscurrents. A slowing economy, tariff implementation, and seasonal stock market weakness point to potential bouts of volatility ahead. Expected rate cuts, AI investment, and impending stimulus from tax and spending legislation passed last month may help buoy investor sentiment.

Pullbacks, when they inevitably come, can refresh bull markets and set them up for their next leg higher. So, we believe it’s important to stay invested and well-diversified, while looking for opportunities to add equities on a dip. Economic and corporate fundamentals remain in great shape.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of August 6, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
May Lose Value

As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.

In a volatile first half, the S&P 500 completed an impressive recovery from the April lows to end June at a fresh record high. The round trip from the February 19 high to the April 2 low and back, in slightly over four months, was one of the fastest recoveries on record from a 10–20% correction. Importantly, history tells us stocks tend to go higher after recovering correction losses, with average gains of 9.6% and 16.2% in the subsequent six and 12 months.

Several factors helped fuel this rally:

• Israel-Iran cease-fire and resulting lower oil prices and lower interest rates
• Progress on trade deals and, so far, little evidence of tariff-driven inflation
• Stimulus from the pending tax cuts and spending bill
• Firming expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and related weakness in the U.S. dollar
• Resurgence in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investments
• Buying by under-invested institutions trying to keep up with the rally

While history suggests achieving new highs may bode well for the rest of the year, we know stocks don’t go up in a straight line. Several obstacles lie ahead. Perhaps the biggest one is the yet-to-be-felt effects of tariffs on companies’ profit margins. With stock valuations elevated (as they’ve been for a while), earnings will be key to further upside. Potentially higher interest rates from additional deficit spending are another risk to monitor. And as always, geopolitics are a wild card.

We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop, corporate fundamentals, policy developments, and technical indicators to guide our outlook. We believe the foundation for continued economic growth is intact, supported by resilient consumer spending, a healthy job market, modest earnings growth despite tariffs, the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts this fall, and the stimulus from the pending reconciliation bill. Staying invested and well-diversified while looking for opportunities to potentially add equities on weakness remains the prudent approach for this market environment.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of July 2, 2025.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

As June begins, markets continue to navigate a complex landscape shaped by trade policy shifts, an uncertain economic and earnings outlook, and bond market headwinds. Several key developments in recent weeks may have implications for markets:

• Trade Policy in Flux. The May 28 court ruling blocking most of President Trump’s tariffs has introduced some additional uncertainty for investors. The administration has other legal avenues to pursue if needed and will likely be able to maintain tariffs at levels consistent with prior expectations. Rising tensions with China surrounding critical mineral exports and Taiwan in recent days serve as a reminder for investors that geopolitical risk remains elevated.

• Solid Earnings Results, But Caution Ahead. First quarter earnings season delivered broadly positive results, with nearly 80% of companies exceeding analysts’ expectations. Mega-cap technology companies (the so-called Magnificent Seven) drove nearly half of the 13% S&P 500 earnings per share growth. While the results were strong, they may not be enough to sustain the recent market rally given limited visibility into the economic and profit backdrop for the second half of the year.

• Stock Valuations May Reflect Too Much Optimism. Markets continue to price in limited impact from tariffs, highlighting the fragility of the latest rally. That doesn’t mean the broad market can’t reach new highs this year, but it will likely take some pleasant surprises to help overcome tariff-driven pressures on inflation and profit margins. It would help investor sentiment if trade uncertainty cleared up so the focus could shift toward the tax bill currently in Congress. Whatever your view is on tariffs, there is no doubt that tariff revenue — if preserved — will be helpful in getting the 2017 tax cuts extended.
  
  
• Bond Market Headwinds Persist. The Treasury market is facing several headwinds. The prospects of tariff-driven inflation, our lack of fiscal restraint, reduced demand from foreign buyers, higher non-U.S. yields, and a resilient U.S. economy are just some of the factors putting upward pressure on yields. Ultimately, Treasury yields are primarily a function of growth and inflation expectations, so until the economic data softens, Treasury market volatility is probably here to stay.

As we move further into the summer months, key catalysts to watch include inflation data, further developments in trade negotiations, central bank commentary, and progress on the tax bill. Meanwhile, corporate America’s sales and profit margins will garner increasing support from artificial intelligence in the quarters and years ahead. We encourage long-term investors to watch for opportunities to add equities on dips, though periodic bouts of market volatility are to be expected until there is greater clarity on trade.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of June 4, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

The latest recovery is another reminder that periods of turmoil can often create opportunities. Although stocks may pull back after their strong rally since the April 8 lows — especially if trade deals and tariff reductions don’t materialize soon — the lesson is clear: in our view, staying the course during downturns is almost always the best strategy.

Several factors are at play in the market’s recent recovery:

1. Optimism about trade and tariffs. The White House has signaled progress on deals with several countries, including India, South Korea, Japan, and the U.K. President Trump has also hinted at reductions in China’s tariffs, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with senior Chinese trade officials in Switzerland this week.
   
2. Resilient economic fundamentals. The U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs in April, keeping unemployment low at 4.2%. Consumer spending grew 1.8% in inflation-adjusted terms in the first quarter, while business investment surged over 20% annually — bright spots that were overshadowed by concerns about the 0.3% dip in gross domestic product (GDP) caused by surging pre-tariff imports. A rebound in second-quarter GDP should prevent consecutive quarters of contraction.
3. Easing inflation delayed but still coming. While tariffs may slow further improvement, we and the markets expect inflation to resume its downward trend toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target by 2026. Falling oil prices and declining long-term Treasury yields since January are also helping.
4. Strong corporate profits. S&P 500 firms are on track for over 13% first-quarter earnings growth, roughly double expectations when earnings season began. Leading technology companies have reaffirmed or increased capital spending plans despite trade uncertainty, committing to a more than 30% increase in 2025 over 2024, underpinned by confidence in the potential payoffs of artificial intelligence.

Looking ahead, stocks may need a bit of a breather after making up so much ground quickly. Stagflation risks cannot be dismissed as growth slows and tariffs loom. While the U.S. economy and corporate America remain in excellent shape, we suggest investors maintain exposure to equities and fixed income in line with long-term targets. Better entry points to add equities may present themselves with trade uncertainty still very high.

Despite periodic short-term disruptions, markets are inherently resilient. History shows they may recover regardless of the threat. Stocks tend to reward disciplined, long-term investors. Few exemplify this discipline better than Warren Buffett, who stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) this week after 60 years in that seat (he remains Chairman). His track record — 16% annualized return for BRK/A since November 1987 compared to 10.9% for the S&P 500 — will be tough to beat. We wish him well in his “retirement” at the age of 94.

Thank you for your continued trust.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of May 7, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

April showers came a month early as stocks fell in March. Tariffs were the primary cause of the market jitters, although that uncertainty became too much for markets to shrug off once economic data started to weaken.

The U.S. economy had been poised to slow from last year’s pace near 3% even before the Trump administration announced new tariffs. After the weak retail sales numbers for both January and February, LPL Research reduced its growth estimate from 1.9% to 1.7% with downside risks from potential trade wars if countries retaliate. The odds of recession over the next year or so are probably about 30% as tariffs weigh on economic activity.

Companies must pay some of these levies, compressing profit margins. Some of those costs will be passed on to inflation-weary consumers in the form of higher prices. Some consumers may pull purchases forward ahead of tariffs to avoid price hikes, but others are delaying spending due to the uncertainty, weighing on the economic growth. Falling stock prices and mounting federal government layoffs are adding to consumers’ angst. It’s also difficult for companies to commit to capital projects and hiring while they sort through tariff effects.

On a more positive note, consumers have the benefit of healthy savings, years of solid income growth, and accumulated net wealth to keep the economy growing this year. Slower growth is putting downward pressure on inflation, offsetting tariff effects, and paving the way for more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That should help keep borrowing rates contained. Corporate America remains in excellent shape and is positioned for solid earnings growth even with a tripling or more of average U.S. tariff rates.

We may be at peak trade uncertainty right now. Stocks don’t like uncertainty, but they tend to rally once it starts to clear. We saw that during the trade war period of 2019 under Trump 1.0. From August 23, 2019, through the pre-pandemic highs on February 19, 2020, the S&P 500 index rallied 19%. That may be too much to ask over the next six months, but a double-digit rally from current levels through year end seems attainable. The “spinach” of tariffs comes first, but it will be followed by the “candy” of tax cut extensions and deregulation later. A positive year for stocks remains well within reach.

While the broad U.S. stock market may have fallen during the first quarter, U.S. value and broad international stocks rose based on Russell and MSCI benchmarks. Seven of the 11 S&P equity sectors produced positive returns. And bonds were higher, reminding investors of the benefits of diversification.

Volatility may stay with us for a while as the policy fog continues to clear. Annual returns have historically been muted after first quarter losses. But negative sentiment suggests a durable low may be close. Expect more ups than downs for stocks in the months ahead.

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of April 1, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

As spring approaches and the weather warms, the U.S. economy has begun to cool. After a sizzling recovery from the pandemic, followed by a period of surprisingly solid and steady growth on the back of resilient consumer spending, the economy finally seems poised to downshift to its pre-pandemic trend near 2% growth. Recent confidence surveys suggest consumers may pull back some and jobs are a bit tougher to get. But consumers remain in good shape financially overall — particularly upper-income folks who drive most of the spending. In fact, the top 10% of income earners are now responsible for about half of all spending.

Slower growth may be good for stocks because it helps ease some of the inflation pressure and can pave the way for more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. We’re talking about a slight cooldown, not a collapse. Reaccelerating inflation is probably a bigger risk than recession, even after weak economic data last month. We’ll take our chances with a gradual slowdown from last year’s unsustainable pace near 3% growth.

Slower growth and easing inflation pressure will keep Fed rate cuts in play and prevent big up moves in interest rates that could weigh on stock and bond returns. With bond yields down this year but still attractive, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for fixed income investors. Although stocks are off to a slow start on tariff concerns, cooling inflation and stable yields are key ingredients for the bull case.

Another key ingredient for the bull case for stocks is strong earnings. Corporate America delivered in the fourth quarter, as S&P 500 companies grew earnings per share by over 18% year over year. Although strategists’ expectations for double-digit earnings growth in 2025 may be too high, especially if tariffs stick and prompt more retaliation, the earnings outlook is good enough to support stock gains.

This year has brought new stock market leadership. The average “Magnificent Seven” stock — the largest seven technology companies — has fallen about 9% so far this year, while the average S&P 500 stock is up slightly. As some doubt the staying power of the artificial intelligence-fueled rally in the big tech stocks, others are finding opportunities rotating to other areas — the normal evolution of a maturing bull market.

Tariffs remain a near-term threat. Although exceptions, reductions, delays, or complete reversals may come, some tariffs will stick. Retaliation by trading partners will likely weigh on U.S. economic growth. Prices on some items will rise, as foreign producers and currency adjustments can only absorb so much, making the Fed’s job tougher. Expect some impact on importers’ profits in certain industries, such as autos, food and beverages, and certain segments of retail. But don’t expect tariffs to derail corporate America’s AI-driven earnings gains.

Expect a positive year for stocks on the back of steady growth in corporate profits, but likely with more bumps along the way as the economy slows and policy uncertainty remains elevated.

As always, please reach out to me with questions.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of March 4, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

The new month brings two major market-moving stories to digest. First is the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) by Chinese startup DeepSeek. It has caused some investors to question America’s lead in the AI race and American Exceptionalism more broadly. To answer that question, it’s important to look at this idea holistically.  U.S. advantages in research and development spending, capital markets depth, the dollar’s privilege as the global reserve currency, and more suggest U.S. exceptionalism will remain intact.

Impending tariffs on our three biggest trading partners are also among the news ushered in with the new month. As you digest this news and markets react, we would like you to keep several things in mind. First, we believe the Trump administration is using tariffs mostly as a negotiation tactic with Canada and Mexico, creating leverage for working on issues like border security and drug trafficking. 

Any tariffs implemented in these countries will likely not persist, especially since President Trump does not want higher inflation or sharp stock market declines. While the size and duration of tariffs remains uncertain, feedback from inflation data and market fluctuations should help mitigate potential negative impact. Lasting and higher tariffs are more likely in China, making the path forward for the Chinese economy and the China-heavy emerging market indexes potentially bumpy.

The economic impact of tariffs on consumer prices for most products will likely be manageable, as some costs are absorbed by currency fluctuations, our trading partners, and the companies themselves. Meanwhile, consumers will find substitutes for some products, lessening the blow. So, while inflation readings may tick higher in the short term and companies will experience some margin pressures, the economy should cool enough to keep Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increases off the table and bond yields in check.

As the AI and tariff headlines swirl, don’t forget that stock market fundamentals remain healthy. Steady economic growth, double-digit increases in S&P 500 profits, contained inflation, and likely additional rate cuts by the Fed later this year are a good mix for higher stock prices. The S&P 500 rose in January, which history suggests is an effective barometer for stock prices over the balance of the year. Expect a profitable year for stock investors in 2025 but be ready for some more ups and downs.

As always, please reach out us me with questions.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of February 4, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Dear Valued Investor,

Stocks had another very strong year in 2024. In fact, 2024 marked the first time the S&P 500 has enjoyed a +20% gain in back-to-back years since 1997–98. Last year didn’t start out so optimistically though. The list of worries among stock-market bears included high valuations, narrow leadership by the largest technology stocks, rising long-term interest rates, election uncertainty, deficit spending, and more. Stocks rallied through all of that without so much as one 10% correction.

The stock market’s surprising ascent in 2024 offers some important lessons for investors:

• The herd is often wrong. Wall Street underestimated the S&P 500’s price at year-end by about 15%. Remember, positive years for stocks are about three times more likely than declines.
• The trend is your friend. Employing technical analysis can help investors avoid mistakes. In an upward-trending market, don’t take a detour because of some bearish narrative the market may not care about.
• Bull markets typically run for a while. They last more than five years on average and rarely end when the U.S. economy is growing, especially when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is cutting interest rates. The current bull market is about 27 months old.
• Earnings drive stock prices. The fundamental value of stocks comes from a company’s earnings. S&P 500 companies will likely grow earnings 10% in aggregate in 2024 and may do so again in 2025.
• Focus on the long term. Don’t get scared out of the market by the headlines if you’re a long-term investor. “Time in the market” beats “timing the market.” Waiting it out through down periods is the best approach for nearly all investors. Since 1980, the annualized return for the S&P 500 is 12.1%.

The U.S. economy also offered investors another lesson — that betting against the U.S. consumer is often a losing bet — especially an employed U.S. consumer. Mortgage refinances during the pandemic and the wealth created by higher stock prices added fuel for more spending, particularly from upper-income consumers.

These are good lessons to tuck away as 2025 gets underway. The coming year may not bring quite as much joy to your portfolio as 2024, given how much good news is being priced into the stock market currently. Inflation pressures may re-emerge, and geopolitical threats could upend rallies. But, with steady economic growth, a healthy job market, growing corporate profits, and continued investment in artificial intelligence, the ingredients for another profitable year are in place.

As always, please reach out to us with questions.

Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of January 7, 2025.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.